Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Trevor Siemian — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.342
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.339
Dropbacks
161
Turnover EPA
-32.1
WPA
-1.09
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | ATL | 16 | -0.518 | -0.473 | -0.046 | -8.3 | 0 / 1 | -4.5 | 3 | -7.0 | -0.43 | -24.0 |
| 15 | MIA | 28 | -0.376 | -0.336 | -0.040 | -10.5 | 2 / 1 | -11.0 | 2 | -4.1 | -0.01 | -9.0 |
| 16 | WAS | 49 | -0.400 | -0.326 | -0.074 | -19.6 | 1 / 0 | -9.3 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.31 | -12.6 |
| 17 | CLE | 47 | -0.131 | -0.226 | +0.096 | -6.1 | 1 / 0 | -7.4 | 2 | -1.9 | -0.12 | +1.3 |
| 18 | NE | 21 | -0.502 | -0.524 | +0.022 | -10.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.5 | -0.22 | -14.7 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.