Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Marcus Mariota — 2022
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.030
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.024
Dropbacks
326
Turnover EPA
-36.2
WPA
-0.11
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | 32 | +0.229 | +0.152 | +0.077 | +7.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.02 | -6.9 |
| 2 | LA | 30 | -0.048 | -0.056 | +0.007 | -1.5 | 2 / 1 | -11.3 | 3 | -3.4 | -0.28 | +1.3 |
| 3 | SEA | 23 | +0.623 | +0.649 | -0.026 | +14.3 | 1 / 0 | -0.0 | 3 | -4.3 | +0.49 | +12.7 |
| 4 | CLE | 20 | -0.226 | -0.257 | +0.031 | -4.5 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 1 | -1.5 | -0.11 | -20.0 |
| 5 | TB | 31 | -0.037 | -0.046 | +0.009 | -1.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -9.0 | -0.04 | -6.4 |
| 6 | SF | 16 | +0.373 | +0.326 | +0.047 | +6.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.6 | +0.06 | +19.4 |
| 7 | CIN | 16 | +0.087 | +0.069 | +0.018 | +1.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.0 | -0.05 | +3.7 |
| 8 | CAR | 30 | +0.209 | +0.208 | +0.001 | +6.3 | 2 / 0 | -7.3 | 2 | -3.4 | +0.53 | +6.4 |
| 9 | LAC | 25 | +0.001 | -0.018 | +0.018 | +0.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.0 | -0.35 | -7.2 |
| 10 | CAR | 34 | -0.233 | -0.227 | -0.006 | -7.9 | 1 / 0 | -3.1 | 5 | -11.8 | -0.10 | +6.7 |
| 11 | CHI | 18 | +0.024 | +0.082 | -0.058 | +0.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.03 | -0.9 |
| 12 | WAS | 26 | -0.194 | -0.182 | -0.013 | -5.1 | 1 / 0 | -4.9 | 1 | -1.3 | -0.29 | -4.4 |
| 13 | PIT | 25 | -0.232 | -0.200 | -0.032 | -5.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.1 | 1 | -1.4 | -0.02 | -5.3 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.