Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Marcus Mariota — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.009
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.008
Dropbacks
244
Turnover EPA
-42.6
WPA
-0.68
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | LV | 21 | +0.495 | +0.516 | -0.021 | +10.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.5 | +0.06 | +14.6 |
| 4 | ATL | 29 | +0.070 | +0.066 | +0.004 | +2.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 2 | -1.7 | -0.05 | +3.1 |
| 7 | DAL | 12 | -1.300 | -1.173 | -0.127 | -15.6 | 1 / 0 | -9.1 | 2 | -2.5 | -0.05 | -16.8 |
| 8 | KC | 32 | -0.225 | -0.231 | +0.006 | -7.2 | 2 / 0 | -7.5 | 2 | -4.3 | -0.03 | +1.1 |
| 10 | DET | 25 | +0.472 | +0.437 | +0.035 | +11.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.3 | +0.00 | +14.3 |
| 11 | MIA | 31 | +0.090 | +0.131 | -0.040 | +2.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.0 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.05 | +2.3 |
| 13 | DEN | 53 | +0.095 | -0.006 | +0.101 | +5.0 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 2 | -2.9 | -0.74 | +3.2 |
| 14 | MIN | 5 | -1.090 | -1.172 | +0.082 | -5.4 | 1 / 0 | -5.1 | 1 | -2.1 | -0.02 | -16.7 |
| 15 | NYG | 21 | +0.024 | +0.072 | -0.048 | +0.5 | 0 / 1 | -5.6 | 2 | -8.5 | +0.13 | +4.2 |
| 16 | PHI | 15 | -0.151 | -0.229 | +0.079 | -2.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.6 | -0.03 | -4.7 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.