Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Carson Wentz — 2021
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.004
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.024
Dropbacks
552
Turnover EPA
-58.0
WPA
-0.36
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA | 41 | -0.016 | +0.007 | -0.024 | -0.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -8.7 | -0.13 | +1.1 |
| 2 | LA | 35 | +0.062 | -0.036 | +0.098 | +2.2 | 1 / 0 | -4.8 | 3 | -9.0 | +0.14 | +0.2 |
| 3 | TEN | 39 | -0.243 | -0.219 | -0.024 | -9.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.0 | -0.36 | -7.7 |
| 4 | MIA | 34 | +0.357 | +0.292 | +0.065 | +12.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.8 | +0.04 | +13.5 |
| 5 | BAL | 38 | +0.434 | +0.435 | -0.001 | +16.5 | 0 / 1 | -5.6 | 2 | -7.6 | +0.58 | +4.2 |
| 6 | HOU | 22 | +0.212 | +0.303 | -0.091 | +4.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.0 | +0.22 | -1.1 |
| 7 | SF | 28 | -0.137 | -0.149 | +0.012 | -3.8 | 0 / 1 | -6.1 | 1 | -6.1 | -0.05 | -0.5 |
| 8 | TEN | 52 | -0.274 | -0.250 | -0.024 | -14.3 | 2 / 0 | -12.3 | 1 | -2.0 | -1.02 | -9.5 |
| 9 | NYJ | 31 | +0.410 | +0.513 | -0.103 | +12.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.9 | +0.22 | +7.6 |
| 10 | JAX | 35 | -0.231 | -0.090 | -0.140 | -8.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.6 | -0.06 | -5.7 |
| 11 | BUF | 20 | +0.359 | +0.277 | +0.081 | +7.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.06 | -14.3 |
| 12 | TB | 47 | +0.086 | +0.021 | +0.065 | +4.1 | 2 / 1 | -13.1 | 3 | -8.6 | -0.10 | -5.0 |
| 13 | HOU | 23 | +0.019 | +0.113 | -0.094 | +0.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.2 | +0.03 | +5.4 |
| 15 | NE | 13 | -0.578 | -0.605 | +0.027 | -7.5 | 1 / 0 | -5.1 | 1 | -1.7 | -0.09 | -25.5 |
| 16 | ARI | 30 | +0.328 | +0.299 | +0.030 | +9.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.6 | +0.44 | -2.8 |
| 17 | LV | 28 | -0.264 | -0.193 | -0.071 | -7.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.8 | -0.03 | -2.0 |
| 18 | JAX | 36 | -0.448 | -0.303 | -0.145 | -16.1 | 1 / 1 | -10.9 | 6 | -13.3 | -0.25 | -4.8 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.