Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Carson Wentz — 2022
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.136
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.129
Dropbacks
309
Turnover EPA
-36.4
WPA
-1.10
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX | 44 | +0.140 | +0.197 | -0.056 | +6.2 | 2 / 0 | -10.4 | 1 | -1.5 | +0.27 | -0.2 |
| 2 | DET | 53 | -0.050 | +0.046 | -0.096 | -2.7 | 1 / 0 | -4.2 | 5 | -8.3 | -0.04 | +0.5 |
| 3 | PHI | 53 | -0.369 | -0.408 | +0.039 | -19.6 | 0 / 1 | -5.4 | 9 | -20.3 | -0.46 | -7.6 |
| 4 | DAL | 44 | -0.315 | -0.395 | +0.080 | -13.9 | 2 / 0 | -4.3 | 2 | -2.9 | -0.20 | -6.2 |
| 5 | TEN | 41 | +0.016 | +0.016 | -0.000 | +0.7 | 1 / 0 | -3.6 | 3 | -3.1 | -0.16 | +1.5 |
| 6 | CHI | 26 | -0.410 | -0.343 | -0.067 | -10.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.9 | -0.29 | -16.3 |
| 16 | SF | 17 | +0.299 | +0.257 | +0.041 | +5.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.01 | +7.0 |
| 17 | CLE | 31 | -0.230 | -0.261 | +0.031 | -7.1 | 3 / 0 | -8.5 | 3 | -4.6 | -0.23 | -9.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.