Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Carson Wentz — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.072
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.034
Dropbacks
188
Turnover EPA
-21.9
WPA
-0.01
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | CIN | 23 | +0.350 | +0.411 | -0.061 | +8.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.7 | +0.04 | +3.8 |
| 4 | PIT | 52 | +0.064 | +0.063 | +0.001 | +3.3 | 2 / 0 | -7.3 | 6 | -8.7 | -0.24 | +5.2 |
| 5 | CLE | 37 | +0.304 | +0.235 | +0.069 | +11.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.2 | +0.53 | +6.9 |
| 7 | PHI | 44 | +0.036 | -0.052 | +0.087 | +1.6 | 2 / 0 | -9.4 | 2 | -3.1 | -0.22 | -0.5 |
| 8 | LAC | 32 | -0.333 | -0.398 | +0.065 | -10.7 | 1 / 0 | -5.3 | 5 | -6.9 | -0.12 | -12.4 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.