Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Dak Prescott — 2021
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.149
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.142
Dropbacks
678
Turnover EPA
-61.9
WPA
+2.85
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | 59 | +0.310 | +0.241 | +0.070 | +18.3 | 1 / 0 | -4.8 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.28 | +6.5 |
| 2 | LAC | 29 | -0.067 | -0.058 | -0.010 | -2.0 | 1 / 0 | -5.7 | 2 | -4.4 | -0.01 | +13.0 |
| 3 | PHI | 30 | +0.371 | +0.386 | -0.015 | +11.1 | 0 / 1 | -6.7 | 4 | -10.8 | +0.20 | +16.8 |
| 4 | CAR | 24 | +0.285 | +0.276 | +0.009 | +6.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.13 | -6.2 |
| 5 | NYG | 34 | +0.306 | +0.304 | +0.002 | +10.4 | 1 / 0 | -3.5 | 2 | -2.6 | +0.27 | +3.6 |
| 6 | NE | 52 | +0.482 | +0.433 | +0.050 | +25.1 | 1 / 0 | -5.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.95 | +10.1 |
| 9 | DEN | 41 | -0.201 | -0.203 | +0.002 | -8.2 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 2 | -2.7 | -0.19 | -14.0 |
| 10 | ATL | 31 | +0.673 | +0.731 | -0.058 | +20.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.33 | +10.7 |
| 11 | KC | 48 | -0.356 | -0.322 | -0.034 | -17.1 | 2 / 1 | -10.3 | 5 | -8.9 | -0.32 | +1.6 |
| 12 | LV | 49 | +0.104 | +0.165 | -0.062 | +5.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.7 | +0.24 | -1.9 |
| 13 | NO | 41 | -0.107 | -0.204 | +0.097 | -4.4 | 1 / 0 | -3.6 | 1 | -1.9 | -0.05 | -2.6 |
| 14 | WAS | 43 | -0.274 | -0.262 | -0.012 | -11.8 | 2 / 0 | -10.6 | 4 | -4.9 | -0.11 | -13.4 |
| 15 | NYG | 40 | +0.002 | +0.009 | -0.006 | +0.1 | 0 / 1 | -5.0 | 3 | -8.1 | +0.12 | +7.0 |
| 16 | WAS | 42 | +0.454 | +0.448 | +0.007 | +19.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.5 | +0.20 | +7.5 |
| 17 | ARI | 40 | +0.352 | +0.325 | +0.027 | +14.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.41 | -8.3 |
| 18 | PHI | 28 | +0.901 | +0.902 | -0.000 | +25.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.8 | +0.56 | +14.6 |
| 19 | SF | 47 | -0.249 | -0.259 | +0.011 | -11.7 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 5 | -7.3 | -0.17 | -9.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.