Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Dak Prescott — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.162
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.169
Dropbacks
695
Turnover EPA
-66.2
WPA
+2.82
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG | 24 | +0.173 | +0.174 | -0.001 | +4.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.06 | -10.2 |
| 2 | NYJ | 39 | +0.351 | +0.258 | +0.093 | +13.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.20 | +11.7 |
| 3 | ARI | 42 | -0.175 | -0.087 | -0.088 | -7.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.9 | 2 | -2.8 | -0.10 | -3.3 |
| 4 | NE | 37 | +0.145 | +0.106 | +0.039 | +5.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -8.7 | +0.26 | +12.9 |
| 5 | SF | 27 | -0.392 | -0.451 | +0.059 | -10.6 | 3 / 0 | -14.1 | 3 | -4.5 | -0.04 | -4.0 |
| 6 | LAC | 35 | +0.187 | +0.194 | -0.007 | +6.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -8.9 | +0.47 | +1.7 |
| 8 | LA | 34 | +0.327 | +0.341 | -0.014 | +11.1 | 1 / 0 | -6.0 | 3 | -5.9 | +0.09 | +11.5 |
| 9 | PHI | 49 | +0.271 | +0.264 | +0.008 | +13.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -6.7 | +0.01 | +5.9 |
| 10 | NYG | 35 | +0.470 | +0.461 | +0.009 | +16.5 | 1 / 0 | -5.3 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.13 | +13.7 |
| 11 | CAR | 38 | +0.203 | +0.201 | +0.002 | +7.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.20 | +1.2 |
| 12 | WAS | 33 | +0.531 | +0.583 | -0.052 | +17.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.29 | +8.6 |
| 13 | SEA | 46 | +0.278 | +0.322 | -0.044 | +12.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.4 | +0.55 | +4.6 |
| 14 | PHI | 42 | +0.000 | -0.001 | +0.001 | +0.0 | 0 / 1 | -8.4 | 3 | -11.0 | +0.03 | -9.8 |
| 15 | BUF | 37 | -0.305 | -0.336 | +0.031 | -11.3 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 3 | -6.5 | -0.18 | -4.1 |
| 16 | MIA | 36 | +0.214 | +0.234 | -0.020 | +7.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.4 | +0.22 | -1.8 |
| 17 | DET | 41 | +0.221 | +0.276 | -0.054 | +9.1 | 1 / 0 | -5.6 | 3 | -3.1 | +0.40 | +4.5 |
| 18 | WAS | 36 | +0.562 | +0.614 | -0.052 | +20.2 | 1 / 0 | -5.2 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.43 | +17.6 |
| 19 | GB | 64 | -0.062 | -0.053 | -0.009 | -4.0 | 2 / 0 | -14.2 | 4 | -5.8 | -0.19 | +2.9 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.