Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Dak Prescott — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.007
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.031
Dropbacks
307
Turnover EPA
-39.9
WPA
+1.07
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLE | 35 | -0.145 | -0.190 | +0.046 | -5.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.9 | +0.01 | -6.6 |
| 2 | NO | 41 | -0.184 | -0.211 | +0.026 | -7.5 | 2 / 0 | -10.7 | 3 | -4.9 | +0.07 | +1.2 |
| 3 | BAL | 56 | +0.205 | +0.111 | +0.094 | +11.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.9 | +0.03 | -10.8 |
| 4 | NYG | 28 | +0.346 | +0.391 | -0.045 | +9.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.0 | +0.37 | +13.1 |
| 5 | PIT | 44 | +0.264 | +0.243 | +0.021 | +11.6 | 2 / 1 | -12.3 | 2 | -6.4 | +0.84 | +3.1 |
| 6 | DET | 37 | -0.538 | -0.528 | -0.010 | -19.9 | 2 / 0 | -10.3 | 4 | -6.3 | -0.16 | -11.9 |
| 8 | SF | 40 | +0.047 | +0.023 | +0.023 | +1.9 | 2 / 0 | -6.5 | 2 | -2.8 | -0.09 | +6.3 |
| 9 | ATL | 26 | -0.166 | -0.132 | -0.034 | -4.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.4 | -0.01 | +6.6 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.