Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Dak Prescott — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.179
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.179
Dropbacks
631
Turnover EPA
-47.7
WPA
+4.41
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | 33 | +0.123 | +0.036 | +0.087 | +4.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.05 | +0.2 |
| 2 | NYG | 55 | +0.138 | +0.184 | -0.046 | +7.6 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 3 | -4.7 | +0.71 | +2.1 |
| 3 | CHI | 43 | -0.047 | -0.044 | -0.003 | -2.0 | 2 / 0 | -9.9 | 2 | -3.8 | -0.00 | +10.9 |
| 4 | GB | 41 | +0.566 | +0.547 | +0.019 | +23.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.0 | +1.44 | +13.7 |
| 5 | NYJ | 30 | +0.293 | +0.395 | -0.102 | +8.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.8 | +0.29 | -0.6 |
| 6 | CAR | 34 | +0.450 | +0.522 | -0.072 | +15.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.66 | +7.1 |
| 7 | WAS | 31 | +0.154 | +0.232 | -0.078 | +4.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.4 | +0.25 | +0.4 |
| 8 | DEN | 33 | -0.030 | -0.133 | +0.103 | -1.0 | 2 / 0 | -8.1 | 2 | -3.5 | -0.09 | -3.0 |
| 9 | ARI | 43 | -0.198 | -0.122 | -0.076 | -8.5 | 1 / 0 | +0.2 | 5 | -8.2 | -0.25 | -0.5 |
| 11 | LV | 34 | +0.223 | +0.252 | -0.029 | +7.6 | 0 / 1 | -5.8 | 1 | -5.8 | +0.30 | +8.7 |
| 12 | PHI | 36 | +0.207 | +0.117 | +0.090 | +7.5 | 1 / 0 | -6.0 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.11 | +1.5 |
| 13 | KC | 40 | +0.412 | +0.390 | +0.022 | +16.5 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.52 | +4.8 |
| 14 | DET | 53 | +0.043 | +0.019 | +0.024 | +2.3 | 2 / 0 | -9.7 | 5 | -9.0 | -0.05 | +1.2 |
| 15 | MIN | 40 | +0.124 | +0.024 | +0.100 | +5.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.2 | +0.03 | -4.1 |
| 16 | LAC | 31 | +0.491 | +0.412 | +0.079 | +15.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.2 | +0.39 | +4.0 |
| 17 | WAS | 43 | +0.195 | +0.273 | -0.078 | +8.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 6 | -4.1 | +0.22 | -11.0 |
| 18 | NYG | 11 | -0.151 | -0.095 | -0.056 | -1.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.06 | -4.4 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.