Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Jared Goff — 2021
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.031
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.046
Dropbacks
529
Turnover EPA
-56.4
WPA
+0.70
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF | 62 | -0.099 | -0.110 | +0.012 | -6.1 | 1 / 0 | -7.5 | 3 | -4.4 | -0.12 | -3.7 |
| 2 | GB | 37 | +0.009 | -0.015 | +0.025 | +0.3 | 1 / 0 | -3.5 | 1 | -2.2 | +0.21 | +8.7 |
| 3 | BAL | 32 | +0.087 | +0.098 | -0.011 | +2.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -5.0 | +0.22 | +4.9 |
| 4 | CHI | 42 | +0.128 | +0.114 | +0.014 | +5.4 | 0 / 1 | -5.4 | 4 | -10.0 | -0.03 | +1.0 |
| 5 | MIN | 40 | -0.348 | -0.352 | +0.004 | -13.9 | 1 / 1 | -11.3 | 4 | -10.9 | -0.12 | -1.7 |
| 6 | CIN | 43 | -0.170 | -0.151 | -0.019 | -7.3 | 1 / 0 | -3.0 | 1 | -1.6 | -0.39 | -2.8 |
| 7 | LA | 36 | +0.071 | -0.030 | +0.102 | +2.6 | 2 / 0 | -7.8 | 2 | -3.4 | -0.13 | -4.7 |
| 8 | PHI | 40 | -0.317 | -0.288 | -0.029 | -12.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -11.8 | -0.13 | +7.9 |
| 10 | PIT | 29 | -0.377 | -0.419 | +0.042 | -10.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.8 | -0.03 | -13.7 |
| 12 | CHI | 26 | +0.050 | +0.037 | +0.013 | +1.3 | 0 / 1 | -5.1 | 1 | -5.1 | -0.01 | +11.2 |
| 13 | MIN | 42 | +0.112 | +0.097 | +0.015 | +4.7 | 1 / 1 | -8.2 | 3 | -7.7 | +0.62 | -3.4 |
| 14 | DEN | 41 | -0.206 | -0.209 | +0.003 | -8.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 2 | -4.0 | -0.09 | -4.1 |
| 15 | ARI | 28 | +0.517 | +0.483 | +0.033 | +14.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.0 | +0.27 | +6.9 |
| 18 | GB | 31 | +0.377 | +0.344 | +0.032 | +11.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.3 | +0.43 | +7.4 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.