Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Jared Goff — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.271
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.273
Dropbacks
607
Turnover EPA
-70.9
WPA
+2.92
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA | 30 | -0.172 | -0.160 | -0.011 | -5.2 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 2 | -2.7 | -0.15 | -7.5 |
| 2 | TB | 54 | -0.295 | -0.253 | -0.042 | -15.9 | 2 / 0 | -9.8 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.91 | -4.0 |
| 3 | ARI | 25 | +0.165 | +0.235 | -0.070 | +4.1 | 1 / 0 | -4.9 | 2 | -3.9 | +0.23 | +10.7 |
| 4 | SEA | 21 | +0.855 | +0.852 | +0.003 | +18.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.1 | +0.28 | +25.1 |
| 6 | DAL | 27 | +0.711 | +0.724 | -0.013 | +19.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.1 | +0.18 | +8.8 |
| 7 | MIN | 29 | +0.571 | +0.514 | +0.056 | +16.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -7.2 | +0.59 | +15.5 |
| 8 | TEN | 19 | -0.217 | -0.187 | -0.030 | -4.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -8.0 | -0.11 | +10.9 |
| 9 | GB | 23 | +0.294 | +0.258 | +0.036 | +6.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.1 | +0.18 | +18.1 |
| 10 | HOU | 30 | -0.027 | -0.062 | +0.036 | -0.8 | 5 / 0 | -17.5 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.06 | -2.6 |
| 11 | JAX | 29 | +1.095 | +1.137 | -0.042 | +31.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.16 | +18.5 |
| 12 | IND | 39 | +0.208 | +0.239 | -0.031 | +8.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.7 | +0.28 | +7.1 |
| 13 | CHI | 35 | +0.208 | +0.204 | +0.004 | +7.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.24 | -2.6 |
| 14 | GB | 42 | +0.319 | +0.282 | +0.037 | +13.4 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 1 | -1.7 | +0.57 | +5.5 |
| 15 | BUF | 60 | +0.472 | +0.476 | -0.003 | +28.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.2 | +0.11 | -1.3 |
| 16 | CHI | 33 | +0.481 | +0.469 | +0.012 | +15.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.17 | +1.9 |
| 17 | SF | 37 | +0.630 | +0.592 | +0.038 | +23.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.0 | +0.74 | +11.9 |
| 18 | MIN | 35 | +0.090 | +0.045 | +0.045 | +3.2 | 2 / 0 | -9.3 | 2 | -3.1 | +0.27 | +10.0 |
| 20 | WAS | 39 | -0.135 | -0.085 | -0.050 | -5.3 | 3 / 1 | -19.0 | 2 | -6.8 | +0.05 | -5.4 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.