Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Jared Goff — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.181
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.174
Dropbacks
614
Turnover EPA
-45.9
WPA
+2.13
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | 43 | +0.038 | +0.032 | +0.006 | +1.6 | 1 / 0 | -3.8 | 4 | -8.1 | +0.01 | +11.3 |
| 2 | CHI | 28 | +0.878 | +0.861 | +0.018 | +24.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.32 | +14.9 |
| 3 | BAL | 28 | +0.526 | +0.509 | +0.018 | +14.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.36 | +13.0 |
| 4 | CLE | 27 | +0.024 | -0.038 | +0.062 | +0.7 | 1 / 0 | -3.4 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.09 | -0.5 |
| 5 | CIN | 27 | +0.379 | +0.431 | -0.052 | +10.2 | 0 / 1 | -5.3 | 4 | -9.6 | +0.24 | +15.9 |
| 6 | KC | 30 | +0.242 | +0.224 | +0.018 | +7.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.22 | +14.2 |
| 7 | TB | 33 | -0.310 | -0.262 | -0.049 | -10.2 | 1 / 1 | -7.7 | 4 | -9.7 | -0.02 | -1.3 |
| 9 | MIN | 42 | +0.200 | +0.098 | +0.102 | +8.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -8.9 | -0.08 | -2.5 |
| 10 | WAS | 33 | +0.700 | +0.768 | -0.068 | +23.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.46 | +14.5 |
| 11 | PHI | 39 | -0.288 | -0.366 | +0.077 | -11.2 | 1 / 0 | -6.2 | 2 | -2.7 | -0.24 | -30.1 |
| 12 | NYG | 43 | -0.198 | -0.144 | -0.054 | -8.5 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 3 | -6.0 | -0.12 | -2.9 |
| 13 | GB | 29 | +0.341 | +0.327 | +0.013 | +9.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.4 | +0.36 | +4.3 |
| 14 | DAL | 35 | +0.241 | +0.349 | -0.107 | +8.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.26 | +9.6 |
| 15 | LA | 42 | +0.320 | +0.305 | +0.015 | +13.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.1 | +0.35 | -0.6 |
| 16 | PIT | 57 | +0.194 | +0.190 | +0.003 | +11.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.3 | +0.15 | -7.2 |
| 17 | MIN | 34 | -0.140 | -0.234 | +0.094 | -4.8 | 2 / 1 | -12.7 | 5 | -11.7 | -0.15 | -9.0 |
| 18 | CHI | 44 | +0.283 | +0.279 | +0.003 | +12.4 | 1 / 0 | -2.8 | 2 | -3.1 | +0.10 | +5.4 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.