Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Jacoby Brissett — 2021
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.106
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.095
Dropbacks
244
Turnover EPA
-29.5
WPA
+0.10
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | BUF | 44 | -0.261 | -0.323 | +0.062 | -11.5 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 4 | -6.8 | -0.12 | -9.0 |
| 3 | LV | 51 | -0.119 | -0.053 | -0.065 | -6.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.4 | +0.21 | -3.7 |
| 4 | IND | 33 | -0.008 | -0.017 | +0.009 | -0.3 | 0 / 1 | -6.0 | 3 | -8.7 | -0.09 | +1.1 |
| 5 | TB | 42 | +0.038 | -0.026 | +0.064 | +1.6 | 1 / 1 | -7.6 | 3 | -5.4 | +0.13 | +1.1 |
| 6 | JAX | 1 | +2.097 | +2.228 | -0.131 | +2.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.05 | +52.6 |
| 9 | HOU | 47 | -0.166 | -0.068 | -0.098 | -7.8 | 2 / 1 | -11.4 | 4 | -9.8 | -0.08 | +1.1 |
| 10 | BAL | 25 | -0.092 | -0.080 | -0.012 | -2.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.8 | +0.00 | -5.8 |
| 16 | NO | 1 | -1.652 | -1.755 | +0.103 | -1.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.00 | — |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.