Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Jacoby Brissett — 2022
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.056
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.048
Dropbacks
391
Turnover EPA
-28.2
WPA
+0.00
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAR | 33 | -0.231 | -0.222 | -0.009 | -7.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.07 | -2.9 |
| 2 | NYJ | 28 | +0.486 | +0.495 | -0.009 | +13.6 | 1 / 0 | -0.7 | 1 | -1.1 | +0.10 | +15.0 |
| 3 | PIT | 33 | +0.018 | +0.044 | -0.026 | +0.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.2 | -0.07 | -0.8 |
| 4 | ATL | 36 | -0.108 | -0.028 | -0.080 | -3.9 | 1 / 0 | -0.8 | 1 | -1.1 | -0.41 | -5.5 |
| 5 | LAC | 34 | +0.231 | +0.206 | +0.025 | +7.8 | 1 / 0 | -4.2 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.07 | +4.2 |
| 6 | NE | 50 | -0.170 | -0.232 | +0.062 | -8.5 | 2 / 1 | -13.9 | 4 | -11.1 | -0.24 | -9.1 |
| 7 | BAL | 32 | -0.023 | +0.015 | -0.038 | -0.7 | 0 / 1 | -4.5 | 5 | -8.8 | -0.01 | +17.5 |
| 8 | CIN | 23 | +0.634 | +0.608 | +0.027 | +14.6 | 0 / 1 | -3.9 | 2 | -4.8 | +0.11 | +25.7 |
| 10 | MIA | 38 | -0.149 | -0.158 | +0.009 | -5.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.8 | -0.06 | +0.8 |
| 11 | BUF | 42 | +0.501 | +0.423 | +0.078 | +21.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.2 | +0.34 | +5.8 |
| 12 | TB | 41 | -0.134 | -0.141 | +0.007 | -5.5 | 1 / 0 | -0.1 | 4 | -6.3 | +0.35 | +0.3 |
| 14 | CIN | 1 | -3.914 | -3.930 | +0.015 | -3.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.11 | -31.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.