Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Jacoby Brissett — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.201
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.207
Dropbacks
179
Turnover EPA
-11.7
WPA
-0.93
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIN | 25 | -0.097 | -0.079 | -0.018 | -2.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | +0.2 | +0.07 | +1.1 |
| 2 | SEA | 30 | -0.024 | -0.006 | -0.019 | -0.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.2 | -0.20 | -4.1 |
| 3 | NYJ | 23 | -0.453 | -0.477 | +0.024 | -10.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -9.2 | -0.22 | +6.2 |
| 4 | SF | 38 | -0.403 | -0.415 | +0.012 | -15.3 | 1 / 1 | -11.7 | 6 | -9.6 | -0.14 | -8.5 |
| 5 | MIA | 35 | -0.251 | -0.251 | +0.000 | -8.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.6 | -0.72 | -4.4 |
| 8 | NYJ | 26 | +0.144 | +0.106 | +0.039 | +3.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.30 | -0.1 |
| 17 | LAC | 2 | -1.082 | -1.091 | +0.009 | -2.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.01 | -30.4 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.