Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Jacoby Brissett — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.010
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.007
Dropbacks
530
Turnover EPA
-60.3
WPA
-0.82
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | TEN | 1 | -0.845 | -0.779 | -0.066 | -0.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.00 | -67.0 |
| 6 | IND | 46 | +0.112 | +0.136 | -0.024 | +5.2 | 1 / 0 | -5.5 | 2 | -2.4 | -0.01 | +4.6 |
| 7 | GB | 42 | +0.031 | +0.025 | +0.006 | +1.3 | 0 / 1 | -5.9 | 6 | -12.4 | -0.09 | +4.7 |
| 9 | DAL | 36 | +0.083 | +0.195 | -0.112 | +3.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -8.6 | +0.28 | +7.4 |
| 10 | SEA | 50 | -0.169 | -0.237 | +0.068 | -8.5 | 0 / 2 | -15.9 | 5 | -21.0 | -0.19 | -9.9 |
| 11 | SF | 58 | +0.122 | +0.159 | -0.037 | +7.1 | 2 / 0 | -10.3 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.04 | +12.4 |
| 12 | JAX | 55 | -0.141 | -0.155 | +0.014 | -7.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 6 | -10.4 | -0.82 | +3.1 |
| 13 | TB | 41 | +0.093 | +0.133 | -0.039 | +3.8 | 1 / 0 | -4.9 | 2 | -2.3 | -0.16 | +11.1 |
| 14 | LA | 47 | -0.064 | -0.070 | +0.006 | -3.0 | 1 / 0 | -3.6 | 3 | -3.4 | +0.10 | -8.4 |
| 15 | HOU | 43 | +0.069 | -0.042 | +0.110 | +3.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 2 | -4.0 | +0.00 | +1.2 |
| 16 | ATL | 33 | -0.074 | -0.073 | -0.002 | -2.5 | 1 / 0 | -3.0 | 2 | -3.6 | -0.04 | -13.6 |
| 17 | CIN | 41 | -0.083 | -0.019 | -0.064 | -3.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.5 | +0.02 | -5.7 |
| 18 | LA | 37 | -0.074 | -0.083 | +0.009 | -2.8 | 1 / 1 | -6.7 | 6 | -12.9 | +0.11 | +13.3 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.