Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Jacoby Brissett — 2026 Every split →
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.002
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.030
Dropbacks
295
Turnover EPA
-23.9
WPA
-0.02
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC | 38 | +0.308 | +0.237 | +0.071 | +11.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.45 | +4.6 |
| 2 | SEA | 30 | -0.175 | -0.269 | +0.095 | -5.2 | 1 / 0 | -2.8 | 2 | -4.9 | -0.11 | -5.6 |
| 3 | SF | 53 | +0.194 | +0.211 | -0.017 | +10.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.9 | +0.05 | +8.0 |
| 4 | NYG | 37 | -0.514 | -0.491 | -0.024 | -19.0 | 3 / 0 | -16.6 | 2 | -3.1 | -0.50 | -2.4 |
| 5 | DET | 51 | +0.039 | +0.061 | -0.022 | +2.0 | 1 / 0 | -0.2 | 5 | -10.3 | -0.06 | +0.9 |
| 6 | LA | 35 | +0.081 | +0.057 | +0.025 | +2.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.34 | +0.3 |
| 7 | DEN | 51 | -0.063 | -0.153 | +0.090 | -3.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.8 | -0.17 | -4.7 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.