Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
PJ Walker — 2022
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.210
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.176
Dropbacks
113
Turnover EPA
-15.8
WPA
+0.30
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | SF | 8 | -0.099 | -0.131 | +0.031 | -0.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.3 | -0.00 | +18.4 |
| 6 | LA | 18 | -0.601 | -0.594 | -0.007 | -10.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.2 | -0.30 | -19.8 |
| 7 | TB | 23 | +0.244 | +0.229 | +0.014 | +5.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.4 | +0.05 | +10.7 |
| 8 | ATL | 37 | -0.043 | +0.037 | -0.080 | -1.6 | 1 / 0 | -8.2 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.59 | -9.8 |
| 9 | CIN | 10 | -1.323 | -1.339 | +0.016 | -13.2 | 2 / 0 | -7.5 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.10 | -35.9 |
| 10 | ATL | 17 | -0.167 | -0.085 | -0.083 | -2.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.7 | +0.07 | -6.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.