Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Nick Mullens — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.039
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.079
Dropbacks
159
Turnover EPA
-23.5
WPA
+0.89
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | LV | 13 | +0.093 | +0.129 | -0.036 | +1.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.15 | +5.9 |
| 15 | CIN | 36 | +0.319 | +0.326 | -0.007 | +11.5 | 2 / 0 | -7.1 | 3 | -3.4 | +0.52 | +17.1 |
| 16 | DET | 39 | +0.095 | +0.153 | -0.058 | +3.7 | 4 / 0 | -9.3 | 4 | -7.4 | +0.28 | +6.2 |
| 17 | GB | 23 | -0.203 | -0.182 | -0.021 | -4.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.9 | -0.03 | -6.3 |
| 18 | DET | 48 | -0.115 | -0.054 | -0.060 | -5.5 | 2 / 0 | -7.1 | 4 | -7.4 | -0.03 | +3.0 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.