Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Taysom Hill — 2021
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.069
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.080
Dropbacks
141
Turnover EPA
-24.1
WPA
+0.27
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | 1 | +0.415 | +0.371 | +0.044 | +0.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.00 | +32.7 |
| 4 | NYG | 3 | -0.764 | -0.766 | +0.002 | -2.3 | 1 / 0 | -2.8 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.05 | +1.2 |
| 9 | ATL | 2 | +1.221 | +1.298 | -0.077 | +2.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.05 | +36.1 |
| 10 | TEN | 2 | +0.187 | +0.202 | -0.015 | +0.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.01 | +20.9 |
| 13 | DAL | 43 | -0.441 | -0.514 | +0.073 | -19.0 | 4 / 0 | -21.3 | 2 | -4.6 | -0.45 | -23.6 |
| 14 | NYJ | 24 | +0.048 | +0.158 | -0.110 | +1.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.2 | +0.21 | -1.3 |
| 15 | TB | 29 | -0.067 | -0.128 | +0.061 | -1.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.1 | -0.01 | -13.0 |
| 17 | CAR | 28 | +0.038 | +0.038 | +0.000 | +1.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.0 | +0.26 | +5.7 |
| 18 | ATL | 9 | +0.896 | +0.960 | -0.064 | +8.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.28 | +15.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.