Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Deshaun Watson — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.117
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.104
Dropbacks
187
Turnover EPA
-30.8
WPA
-1.71
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIN | 32 | -0.360 | -0.340 | -0.021 | -11.5 | 1 / 0 | -5.5 | 3 | -4.4 | -0.30 | -6.9 |
| 2 | PIT | 46 | -0.364 | -0.347 | -0.018 | -16.8 | 1 / 1 | -15.0 | 6 | -13.9 | -1.02 | -7.5 |
| 3 | TEN | 36 | +0.314 | +0.347 | -0.034 | +11.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.6 | +0.01 | +19.5 |
| 7 | IND | 5 | -1.193 | -1.175 | -0.018 | -6.0 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.18 | -43.2 |
| 9 | ARI | 30 | -0.052 | +0.033 | -0.085 | -1.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.6 | -0.09 | +0.5 |
| 10 | BAL | 38 | +0.071 | -0.005 | +0.076 | +2.7 | 1 / 0 | -7.8 | 4 | -4.7 | -0.14 | +1.4 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.