Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Deshaun Watson — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.279
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.246
Dropbacks
250
Turnover EPA
-24.3
WPA
-0.97
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAL | 51 | -0.487 | -0.453 | -0.034 | -24.9 | 2 / 0 | -9.2 | 6 | -10.1 | -0.25 | -8.0 |
| 2 | JAX | 36 | -0.032 | +0.035 | -0.066 | -1.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.3 | +0.17 | -0.5 |
| 3 | NYG | 46 | -0.488 | -0.424 | -0.063 | -22.4 | 0 / 1 | -4.0 | 8 | -17.7 | -0.42 | -7.5 |
| 4 | LV | 35 | -0.191 | -0.198 | +0.007 | -6.7 | 1 / 0 | -5.0 | 3 | -5.5 | -0.49 | +4.1 |
| 5 | WAS | 35 | -0.487 | -0.431 | -0.057 | -17.1 | 0 / 1 | -6.1 | 7 | -13.7 | -0.25 | -8.6 |
| 6 | PHI | 28 | +0.094 | +0.054 | +0.040 | +2.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -5.5 | +0.14 | -0.5 |
| 7 | CIN | 19 | -0.007 | +0.017 | -0.024 | -0.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.5 | +0.13 | +15.9 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.