Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Cooper Rush — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.206
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.210
Dropbacks
25
Turnover EPA
-4.2
WPA
+0.00
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG | 1 | -2.602 | -2.602 | -0.001 | -2.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.00 | -36.7 |
| 4 | NE | 2 | +0.828 | +0.788 | +0.039 | +1.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.00 | +28.7 |
| 5 | SF | 3 | -0.415 | -0.474 | +0.059 | -1.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.00 | +19.1 |
| 8 | LA | 3 | -0.786 | -0.772 | -0.014 | -2.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.00 | -7.1 |
| 10 | NYG | 9 | -0.023 | -0.032 | +0.009 | -0.2 | 1 / 0 | -4.2 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.00 | +6.5 |
| 11 | CAR | 3 | -0.362 | -0.364 | +0.002 | -1.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.00 | +8.8 |
| 18 | WAS | 4 | +0.174 | +0.227 | -0.052 | +0.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.00 | +9.9 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.