Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Cooper Rush — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.086
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.072
Dropbacks
321
Turnover EPA
-37.9
WPA
-0.33
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | NO | 3 | -0.635 | -0.662 | +0.026 | -1.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.00 | -44.8 |
| 6 | DET | 11 | -0.328 | -0.318 | -0.010 | -3.6 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.00 | +3.7 |
| 9 | ATL | 26 | +0.021 | +0.055 | -0.034 | +0.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.05 | -15.3 |
| 10 | PHI | 24 | -0.683 | -0.706 | +0.023 | -16.4 | 0 / 1 | -5.1 | 1 | -5.1 | -0.32 | -13.5 |
| 11 | HOU | 60 | -0.198 | -0.228 | +0.030 | -11.9 | 1 / 1 | -12.8 | 5 | -17.8 | -0.18 | -12.1 |
| 12 | WAS | 33 | +0.217 | +0.259 | -0.042 | +7.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.1 | +0.22 | +3.6 |
| 13 | NYG | 36 | -0.132 | -0.076 | -0.057 | -4.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.04 | -11.0 |
| 14 | CIN | 34 | -0.199 | -0.175 | -0.023 | -6.8 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 3 | -4.3 | -0.24 | -15.9 |
| 15 | CAR | 29 | +0.341 | +0.389 | -0.048 | +9.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.8 | +0.30 | -4.1 |
| 16 | TB | 36 | +0.225 | +0.257 | -0.032 | +8.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.9 | +0.25 | +5.0 |
| 17 | PHI | 29 | -0.272 | -0.304 | +0.032 | -7.9 | 2 / 0 | -11.3 | 1 | -2.7 | -0.28 | -10.6 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.