Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Mitchell Trubisky — 2022
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.062
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.047
Dropbacks
191
Turnover EPA
-20.7
WPA
+0.74
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIN | 38 | -0.131 | -0.145 | +0.015 | -5.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.45 | -7.1 |
| 2 | NE | 37 | -0.064 | -0.129 | +0.065 | -2.4 | 1 / 0 | -5.3 | 3 | -3.4 | -0.13 | -4.9 |
| 3 | CLE | 33 | -0.006 | -0.043 | +0.037 | -0.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.3 | -0.11 | +0.1 |
| 4 | NYJ | 16 | -0.439 | -0.415 | -0.024 | -7.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 3 | -4.4 | -0.28 | -5.4 |
| 6 | TB | 13 | +0.806 | +0.791 | +0.015 | +10.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.40 | +9.7 |
| 14 | BAL | 31 | +0.177 | +0.212 | -0.035 | +5.5 | 3 / 0 | -10.8 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.05 | +11.4 |
| 15 | CAR | 23 | +0.458 | +0.451 | +0.008 | +10.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.2 | +0.35 | +14.8 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.