Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Mitchell Trubisky — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.171
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.160
Dropbacks
114
Turnover EPA
-18.5
WPA
-1.02
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | HOU | 5 | -0.221 | -0.225 | +0.005 | -1.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.00 | -15.6 |
| 8 | JAX | 28 | -0.272 | -0.259 | -0.014 | -7.6 | 2 / 0 | -3.5 | 2 | -3.2 | -0.25 | -7.4 |
| 13 | ARI | 17 | +0.391 | +0.472 | -0.081 | +6.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.02 | +3.0 |
| 14 | NE | 38 | -0.381 | -0.407 | +0.026 | -14.5 | 1 / 0 | -5.0 | 2 | -4.4 | -0.77 | -3.0 |
| 15 | IND | 26 | -0.111 | -0.092 | -0.018 | -2.9 | 2 / 0 | -10.0 | 3 | -5.6 | -0.01 | +3.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.