Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Patrick Mahomes — 2021
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.226
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.211
Dropbacks
818
Turnover EPA
-82.0
WPA
+4.76
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLE | 39 | +0.519 | +0.497 | +0.022 | +20.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.4 | +0.48 | +15.9 |
| 2 | BAL | 31 | +0.558 | +0.555 | +0.003 | +17.3 | 1 / 0 | -3.4 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.73 | +10.4 |
| 3 | LAC | 46 | +0.240 | +0.241 | -0.002 | +11.0 | 2 / 0 | -5.2 | 2 | -2.6 | +0.06 | +1.2 |
| 4 | PHI | 31 | +0.729 | +0.733 | -0.005 | +22.6 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 1 | -1.5 | +0.53 | +17.0 |
| 5 | BUF | 56 | -0.106 | -0.176 | +0.070 | -5.9 | 2 / 0 | -12.7 | 2 | -1.0 | -0.16 | -3.6 |
| 6 | WAS | 50 | +0.247 | +0.247 | +0.000 | +12.3 | 2 / 0 | -9.2 | 3 | -3.2 | +0.25 | +5.1 |
| 7 | TEN | 39 | -0.194 | -0.174 | -0.020 | -7.5 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 4 | -9.5 | -0.04 | -5.3 |
| 8 | NYG | 50 | +0.049 | +0.054 | -0.005 | +2.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.7 | 2 | -1.3 | +0.06 | -0.8 |
| 9 | GB | 38 | -0.218 | -0.236 | +0.017 | -8.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.3 | -0.10 | -11.4 |
| 10 | LV | 50 | +0.446 | +0.498 | -0.052 | +22.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.55 | +5.2 |
| 11 | DAL | 40 | -0.111 | -0.189 | +0.078 | -4.4 | 1 / 1 | -10.1 | 3 | -8.2 | -0.09 | -1.9 |
| 13 | DEN | 30 | -0.081 | -0.086 | +0.005 | -2.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.04 | -17.0 |
| 14 | LV | 27 | +0.522 | +0.574 | -0.052 | +14.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.7 | +0.14 | +18.6 |
| 15 | LAC | 48 | +0.192 | +0.194 | -0.003 | +9.2 | 1 / 1 | -10.4 | 1 | -4.4 | +0.48 | -1.0 |
| 16 | PIT | 32 | +0.561 | +0.497 | +0.065 | +18.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.6 | +0.18 | +15.1 |
| 17 | CIN | 35 | +0.317 | +0.324 | -0.007 | +11.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.30 | +12.1 |
| 18 | DEN | 45 | +0.284 | +0.270 | +0.015 | +12.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.3 | +0.26 | -3.1 |
| 19 | PIT | 42 | +0.517 | +0.453 | +0.064 | +21.7 | 1 / 0 | -6.0 | 3 | -5.3 | +0.20 | +10.6 |
| 20 | BUF | 46 | +0.549 | +0.464 | +0.085 | +25.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.2 | +1.39 | +7.5 |
| 21 | CIN | 43 | -0.166 | -0.148 | -0.018 | -7.2 | 2 / 0 | -7.9 | 4 | -7.1 | -0.49 | +0.7 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.