Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Patrick Mahomes — 2022
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.291
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.285
Dropbacks
780
Turnover EPA
-55.1
WPA
+5.53
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI | 39 | +0.857 | +0.851 | +0.006 | +33.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.44 | +11.8 |
| 2 | LAC | 36 | +0.156 | +0.135 | +0.021 | +5.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.16 | +4.3 |
| 3 | IND | 37 | +0.201 | +0.209 | -0.007 | +7.4 | 1 / 0 | -1.1 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.23 | -4.4 |
| 4 | TB | 40 | +0.230 | +0.215 | +0.016 | +9.2 | 1 / 0 | -4.8 | 3 | -2.5 | +0.11 | +1.5 |
| 5 | LV | 47 | +0.224 | +0.295 | -0.071 | +10.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.9 | +0.46 | +2.0 |
| 6 | BUF | 43 | +0.172 | +0.102 | +0.070 | +7.4 | 2 / 0 | -8.6 | 3 | -3.9 | +0.03 | +1.8 |
| 7 | SF | 35 | +0.907 | +0.852 | +0.055 | +31.7 | 1 / 0 | -3.6 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.71 | +10.7 |
| 9 | TEN | 72 | +0.025 | +0.023 | +0.002 | +1.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 4 | -5.8 | +0.04 | -1.2 |
| 10 | JAX | 35 | +0.526 | +0.573 | -0.047 | +18.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.4 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.36 | +6.9 |
| 11 | LAC | 35 | +0.544 | +0.514 | +0.030 | +19.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.56 | +0.7 |
| 12 | LA | 42 | +0.190 | +0.177 | +0.013 | +8.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.9 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.22 | +4.8 |
| 13 | CIN | 29 | +0.284 | +0.258 | +0.026 | +8.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.9 | +0.15 | +5.6 |
| 14 | DEN | 44 | +0.162 | +0.131 | +0.031 | +7.1 | 3 / 0 | -11.3 | 2 | -3.1 | +0.14 | -1.5 |
| 15 | HOU | 44 | +0.365 | +0.375 | -0.009 | +16.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.2 | +0.29 | +14.9 |
| 16 | SEA | 29 | +0.039 | +0.075 | -0.036 | +1.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.04 | -9.0 |
| 17 | DEN | 42 | +0.286 | +0.253 | +0.032 | +12.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.42 | +5.4 |
| 18 | LV | 28 | -0.040 | +0.036 | -0.076 | -1.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -5.0 | +0.19 | +6.7 |
| 20 | JAX | 30 | +0.271 | +0.323 | -0.053 | +8.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.31 | +9.8 |
| 21 | CIN | 46 | +0.182 | +0.161 | +0.021 | +8.4 | 0 / 1 | -6.0 | 3 | -7.9 | +0.24 | +2.3 |
| 22 | PHI | 27 | +0.519 | +0.459 | +0.060 | +14.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.42 | +13.6 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.