Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Patrick Mahomes — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.116
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.112
Dropbacks
776
Turnover EPA
-76.0
WPA
+1.83
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | 39 | -0.228 | -0.165 | -0.063 | -8.9 | 1 / 0 | -8.5 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.39 | -6.2 |
| 2 | JAX | 42 | +0.252 | +0.251 | +0.000 | +10.6 | 1 / 0 | -1.4 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.20 | +3.8 |
| 3 | CHI | 33 | +0.587 | +0.634 | -0.047 | +19.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.23 | +8.2 |
| 4 | NYJ | 31 | +0.111 | +0.020 | +0.091 | +3.5 | 2 / 0 | -5.4 | 1 | -1.7 | -0.02 | -4.4 |
| 5 | MIN | 42 | +0.345 | +0.352 | -0.006 | +14.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.1 | +0.55 | +10.0 |
| 6 | DEN | 42 | +0.092 | +0.109 | -0.017 | +3.8 | 1 / 0 | -3.2 | 2 | -2.9 | +0.09 | +6.2 |
| 7 | LAC | 43 | +0.521 | +0.519 | +0.002 | +22.4 | 1 / 0 | -0.9 | 1 | -2.2 | +0.45 | +12.7 |
| 8 | DEN | 41 | -0.294 | -0.267 | -0.027 | -12.1 | 2 / 1 | -11.6 | 3 | -7.1 | -0.24 | -4.2 |
| 9 | MIA | 32 | +0.018 | +0.043 | -0.025 | +0.6 | 0 / 1 | -3.8 | 2 | -4.4 | +0.04 | +0.3 |
| 11 | PHI | 43 | -0.196 | -0.193 | -0.003 | -8.4 | 1 / 0 | -5.6 | 1 | -1.9 | -0.48 | -3.4 |
| 12 | LV | 35 | +0.339 | +0.360 | -0.021 | +11.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.55 | +7.7 |
| 13 | GB | 36 | +0.103 | +0.110 | -0.006 | +3.7 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 3 | -3.6 | -0.14 | +1.1 |
| 14 | BUF | 44 | -0.034 | -0.068 | +0.034 | -1.5 | 1 / 0 | -6.3 | 1 | -2.3 | -0.42 | -3.6 |
| 15 | NE | 40 | +0.090 | +0.053 | +0.037 | +3.6 | 2 / 0 | -11.0 | 3 | -5.7 | +0.34 | +10.4 |
| 16 | LV | 48 | -0.329 | -0.299 | -0.030 | -15.8 | 1 / 0 | -7.6 | 4 | -6.2 | -0.43 | -1.3 |
| 17 | CIN | 31 | -0.014 | -0.001 | -0.013 | -0.4 | 0 / 1 | -4.6 | 2 | -5.0 | -0.01 | +6.9 |
| 19 | MIA | 41 | +0.179 | +0.197 | -0.018 | +7.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.19 | -1.6 |
| 20 | BUF | 23 | +0.660 | +0.611 | +0.049 | +15.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.25 | +18.2 |
| 21 | BAL | 41 | +0.271 | +0.190 | +0.081 | +11.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.1 | +0.31 | +13.6 |
| 22 | SF | 49 | +0.196 | +0.124 | +0.073 | +9.6 | 1 / 0 | -2.0 | 3 | -4.2 | +0.74 | +7.7 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.