Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Patrick Mahomes — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.145
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.127
Dropbacks
537
Turnover EPA
-47.7
WPA
+1.00
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC | 41 | +0.167 | +0.087 | +0.079 | +6.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.0 | -0.03 | -6.0 |
| 2 | PHI | 31 | -0.145 | -0.231 | +0.086 | -4.5 | 1 / 0 | -7.1 | 2 | -3.6 | -0.13 | -5.8 |
| 3 | NYG | 39 | +0.166 | +0.211 | -0.045 | +6.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.8 | -0.00 | -1.5 |
| 4 | BAL | 38 | +0.441 | +0.426 | +0.015 | +16.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.8 | +0.27 | +5.9 |
| 5 | JAX | 41 | +0.085 | +0.065 | +0.020 | +3.5 | 1 / 0 | -12.7 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.02 | +6.2 |
| 6 | DET | 33 | +0.505 | +0.472 | +0.034 | +16.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -2.9 | +0.41 | +7.7 |
| 7 | LV | 36 | +0.516 | +0.537 | -0.022 | +18.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.9 | +0.22 | +6.1 |
| 8 | WAS | 37 | +0.295 | +0.371 | -0.076 | +10.9 | 2 / 0 | -7.0 | 3 | -1.1 | +0.22 | +10.9 |
| 9 | BUF | 38 | -0.017 | -0.044 | +0.027 | -0.6 | 1 / 0 | -1.0 | 3 | -5.0 | -0.19 | -4.4 |
| 11 | DEN | 48 | +0.125 | +0.024 | +0.101 | +6.0 | 1 / 0 | -3.4 | 3 | -3.0 | -0.04 | -2.8 |
| 12 | IND | 51 | +0.144 | +0.167 | -0.022 | +7.4 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 4 | -2.9 | +0.49 | +1.2 |
| 13 | DAL | 37 | +0.278 | +0.383 | -0.105 | +10.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.6 | +0.41 | +4.7 |
| 14 | HOU | 34 | -0.555 | -0.656 | +0.101 | -18.9 | 3 / 0 | -8.2 | 2 | -3.2 | -0.62 | -14.9 |
| 15 | LAC | 33 | -0.036 | -0.108 | +0.072 | -1.2 | 1 / 0 | -2.7 | 5 | -7.2 | -0.05 | -5.3 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.