Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Mike White — 2021
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.044
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.015
Dropbacks
137
Turnover EPA
-36.4
WPA
+0.16
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | NE | 33 | +0.033 | -0.006 | +0.039 | +1.1 | 2 / 0 | -7.1 | 1 | -0.1 | +0.02 | -6.5 |
| 8 | CIN | 48 | +0.155 | +0.168 | -0.012 | +7.5 | 2 / 0 | -15.1 | 2 | -3.5 | +0.20 | +9.5 |
| 9 | IND | 11 | +0.595 | +0.576 | +0.019 | +6.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.14 | -0.5 |
| 10 | BUF | 45 | -0.202 | -0.271 | +0.069 | -9.1 | 4 / 0 | -14.3 | 1 | -1.4 | -0.20 | -11.4 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.