Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Mason Rudolph — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.129
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.114
Dropbacks
119
Turnover EPA
-8.0
WPA
+0.58
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | IND | 4 | -1.438 | -1.420 | -0.018 | -5.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -3.5 | -0.01 | -9.1 |
| 16 | CIN | 28 | +0.293 | +0.298 | -0.005 | +8.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.7 | +0.21 | +4.5 |
| 17 | SEA | 25 | +0.403 | +0.444 | -0.041 | +10.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.1 | +0.44 | +22.0 |
| 18 | BAL | 23 | +0.101 | +0.025 | +0.076 | +2.3 | 0 / 1 | -1.9 | 3 | -4.6 | +0.09 | +15.4 |
| 19 | BUF | 39 | +0.014 | -0.020 | +0.034 | +0.5 | 1 / 0 | -6.1 | 1 | -1.8 | -0.16 | -5.9 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.