Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Mason Rudolph — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.028
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.005
Dropbacks
237
Turnover EPA
-40.8
WPA
+0.06
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | MIA | 17 | -0.259 | -0.255 | -0.004 | -4.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.9 | -0.09 | -5.4 |
| 7 | BUF | 42 | -0.103 | -0.087 | -0.016 | -4.3 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 3 | -3.9 | -0.14 | -1.9 |
| 8 | DET | 39 | -0.323 | -0.320 | -0.004 | -12.6 | 2 / 0 | -12.4 | 1 | -1.4 | -0.05 | -6.4 |
| 9 | NE | 34 | +0.123 | +0.152 | -0.029 | +4.2 | 1 / 0 | -5.4 | 1 | -1.7 | +0.44 | +9.5 |
| 15 | CIN | 25 | +0.366 | +0.386 | -0.020 | +9.2 | 1 / 0 | -5.3 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.01 | +12.7 |
| 16 | IND | 36 | +0.067 | +0.101 | -0.034 | +2.4 | 3 / 0 | -9.4 | 1 | -2.8 | +0.07 | -1.6 |
| 17 | JAX | 34 | -0.060 | +0.007 | -0.067 | -2.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 3 | -3.2 | -0.17 | -2.8 |
| 18 | HOU | 10 | +0.095 | +0.053 | +0.042 | +0.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.0 | -0.01 | +0.3 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.