Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Lamar Jackson — 2022
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.046
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.030
Dropbacks
352
Turnover EPA
-33.6
WPA
+0.13
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ | 32 | +0.116 | +0.132 | -0.016 | +3.7 | 1 / 0 | -2.0 | 2 | -1.7 | +0.01 | -3.6 |
| 2 | MIA | 29 | +0.641 | +0.615 | +0.026 | +18.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.22 | +6.9 |
| 3 | NE | 33 | +0.291 | +0.217 | +0.074 | +9.6 | 1 / 0 | -3.3 | 4 | -4.1 | +0.04 | +4.0 |
| 4 | BUF | 31 | -0.235 | -0.297 | +0.062 | -7.3 | 2 / 0 | -9.2 | 2 | -2.8 | -0.33 | -0.2 |
| 5 | CIN | 33 | -0.160 | -0.172 | +0.012 | -5.3 | 1 / 0 | -2.9 | 1 | -0.6 | -0.03 | +4.6 |
| 6 | NYG | 34 | -0.053 | -0.047 | -0.006 | -1.8 | 1 / 1 | -11.0 | 2 | -5.7 | -0.33 | -7.8 |
| 7 | CLE | 19 | -0.192 | -0.225 | +0.033 | -3.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.9 | -0.05 | -10.2 |
| 8 | TB | 40 | +0.034 | +0.024 | +0.010 | +1.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.1 | +0.17 | +11.1 |
| 9 | NO | 25 | +0.257 | +0.178 | +0.078 | +6.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -2.5 | +0.22 | -13.6 |
| 11 | CAR | 36 | -0.160 | -0.152 | -0.008 | -5.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.2 | 3 | -4.9 | -0.12 | +0.2 |
| 12 | JAX | 34 | +0.184 | +0.237 | -0.053 | +6.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.50 | -6.2 |
| 13 | DEN | 6 | -0.969 | -0.992 | +0.023 | -5.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.8 | -0.18 | -2.8 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.