Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Lamar Jackson — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.357
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.344
Dropbacks
544
Turnover EPA
-38.5
WPA
+3.20
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | 42 | -0.044 | -0.059 | +0.015 | -1.9 | 0 / 1 | -5.6 | 1 | -5.6 | -0.12 | -3.7 |
| 2 | LV | 34 | +0.040 | +0.029 | +0.012 | +1.4 | 1 / 0 | -5.1 | 2 | -2.6 | +0.03 | -0.6 |
| 3 | DAL | 15 | +0.700 | +0.711 | -0.011 | +10.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.22 | +4.4 |
| 4 | BUF | 19 | +0.478 | +0.483 | -0.006 | +9.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.13 | +9.5 |
| 5 | CIN | 43 | +0.486 | +0.494 | -0.008 | +20.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.62 | -0.5 |
| 6 | WAS | 28 | +0.354 | +0.393 | -0.039 | +9.9 | 1 / 0 | -7.1 | 2 | -3.2 | +0.33 | +15.8 |
| 7 | TB | 24 | +1.035 | +1.047 | -0.011 | +24.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.9 | +0.46 | +15.4 |
| 8 | CLE | 39 | +0.256 | +0.199 | +0.057 | +10.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.6 | +0.20 | +4.3 |
| 9 | DEN | 20 | +1.004 | +0.967 | +0.037 | +20.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -3.3 | +0.25 | +16.5 |
| 10 | CIN | 33 | +0.592 | +0.596 | -0.004 | +19.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.92 | +12.5 |
| 11 | PIT | 36 | -0.054 | -0.068 | +0.014 | -2.0 | 1 / 0 | -3.4 | 2 | -1.5 | -0.48 | -10.7 |
| 12 | LAC | 24 | +0.367 | +0.338 | +0.029 | +8.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.8 | +0.41 | +10.6 |
| 13 | PHI | 39 | +0.016 | -0.025 | +0.041 | +0.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.4 | -0.34 | +2.7 |
| 15 | NYG | 27 | +0.879 | +0.912 | -0.033 | +23.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.8 | +0.36 | +24.2 |
| 16 | PIT | 24 | +0.318 | +0.295 | +0.023 | +7.6 | 1 / 0 | -6.5 | 1 | -2.3 | +0.21 | +0.8 |
| 17 | HOU | 16 | +0.579 | +0.527 | +0.052 | +9.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.0 | +0.09 | +6.6 |
| 18 | CLE | 31 | +0.224 | +0.170 | +0.054 | +7.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.01 | -8.0 |
| 19 | PIT | 21 | +0.500 | +0.475 | +0.026 | +10.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.08 | +12.8 |
| 20 | BUF | 29 | +0.149 | +0.157 | -0.009 | +4.3 | 1 / 1 | -10.8 | 2 | -9.8 | -0.17 | +8.9 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.