Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Lamar Jackson — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.062
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.055
Dropbacks
338
Turnover EPA
-49.0
WPA
+1.11
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 21 | +0.459 | +0.419 | +0.040 | +9.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.3 | +0.16 | +8.7 |
| 2 | CLE | 32 | +0.363 | +0.292 | +0.071 | +11.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.9 | +0.07 | +6.7 |
| 3 | DET | 35 | +0.345 | +0.315 | +0.030 | +12.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 7 | -11.1 | +0.25 | +13.4 |
| 4 | KC | 23 | -0.220 | -0.227 | +0.007 | -5.1 | 1 / 1 | -8.5 | 3 | -6.7 | -0.11 | +6.7 |
| 9 | MIA | 25 | +0.381 | +0.416 | -0.035 | +9.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.2 | +0.30 | +18.1 |
| 10 | MIN | 31 | +0.054 | -0.045 | +0.099 | +1.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.19 | -13.5 |
| 11 | CLE | 30 | -0.374 | -0.428 | +0.054 | -11.2 | 2 / 0 | -12.8 | 5 | -6.5 | -0.31 | -8.8 |
| 12 | NYJ | 24 | -0.117 | -0.003 | -0.114 | -2.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.02 | +1.2 |
| 13 | CIN | 35 | -0.408 | -0.337 | -0.071 | -14.3 | 1 / 2 | -15.2 | 3 | -11.4 | -0.51 | -6.8 |
| 14 | PIT | 35 | -0.139 | -0.137 | -0.002 | -4.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.2 | 2 | -4.4 | -0.27 | -5.0 |
| 15 | CIN | 16 | -0.058 | +0.004 | -0.062 | -0.9 | 1 / 0 | -3.8 | 4 | -6.2 | +0.11 | +6.8 |
| 16 | NE | 10 | +0.668 | +0.629 | +0.039 | +6.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.21 | +7.7 |
| 18 | PIT | 21 | +0.423 | +0.414 | +0.009 | +8.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 3 | -4.4 | +0.99 | +2.6 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.