Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Baker Mayfield — 2021
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.013
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.011
Dropbacks
462
Turnover EPA
-60.6
WPA
-1.54
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | 30 | +0.341 | +0.359 | -0.018 | +10.2 | 1 / 0 | -2.0 | 2 | -2.4 | +0.09 | +14.2 |
| 2 | HOU | 23 | +0.258 | +0.347 | -0.088 | +5.9 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 2 | -2.9 | +0.24 | +19.6 |
| 3 | CHI | 35 | -0.045 | -0.057 | +0.012 | -1.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -12.8 | -0.06 | +0.6 |
| 4 | MIN | 37 | -0.155 | -0.164 | +0.009 | -5.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.5 | -0.16 | -18.2 |
| 5 | LAC | 33 | +0.335 | +0.336 | -0.001 | +11.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.41 | +9.5 |
| 6 | ARI | 33 | -0.169 | -0.183 | +0.014 | -5.6 | 1 / 2 | -14.0 | 5 | -16.4 | -0.12 | +0.7 |
| 8 | PIT | 35 | +0.139 | +0.083 | +0.055 | +4.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -4.2 | -0.31 | -3.0 |
| 9 | CIN | 23 | +0.449 | +0.454 | -0.005 | +10.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.4 | +0.14 | +14.4 |
| 10 | NE | 23 | -0.192 | -0.225 | +0.033 | -4.4 | 1 / 0 | -6.0 | 2 | -1.7 | -0.15 | -11.0 |
| 11 | DET | 30 | -0.389 | -0.238 | -0.151 | -11.7 | 2 / 0 | -5.8 | 1 | -1.8 | -0.23 | -11.8 |
| 12 | BAL | 39 | -0.073 | -0.057 | -0.016 | -2.8 | 0 / 1 | -4.8 | 2 | -6.0 | -0.45 | -11.1 |
| 14 | BAL | 32 | -0.069 | -0.058 | -0.011 | -2.2 | 1 / 0 | -5.6 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.00 | +3.0 |
| 16 | GB | 42 | -0.021 | -0.044 | +0.023 | -0.9 | 4 / 0 | -12.9 | 5 | -7.1 | -0.52 | -6.9 |
| 17 | PIT | 47 | -0.290 | -0.335 | +0.045 | -13.6 | 2 / 0 | -5.5 | 9 | -13.2 | -0.43 | -20.2 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.