Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Baker Mayfield — 2022
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.141
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.138
Dropbacks
371
Turnover EPA
-34.9
WPA
-1.39
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLE | 31 | -0.014 | -0.052 | +0.038 | -0.4 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 4 | -7.5 | -0.09 | -9.2 |
| 2 | NYG | 31 | -0.261 | -0.248 | -0.012 | -8.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.0 | -0.37 | -15.7 |
| 3 | NO | 28 | -0.101 | -0.171 | +0.070 | -2.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.5 | -0.18 | -19.4 |
| 4 | ARI | 39 | -0.364 | -0.341 | -0.023 | -14.2 | 2 / 0 | -9.5 | 2 | -3.8 | -0.44 | -10.2 |
| 5 | SF | 40 | -0.239 | -0.271 | +0.031 | -9.6 | 1 / 0 | -7.4 | 4 | -7.8 | -0.21 | -8.8 |
| 9 | CIN | 20 | +0.608 | +0.592 | +0.016 | +12.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.00 | +2.9 |
| 11 | BAL | 37 | -0.432 | -0.386 | -0.046 | -16.0 | 2 / 0 | -6.6 | 4 | -7.5 | -0.41 | -3.0 |
| 14 | LV | 38 | -0.026 | +0.052 | -0.078 | -1.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -4.2 | +0.44 | -6.2 |
| 15 | GB | 26 | -0.117 | -0.132 | +0.016 | -3.0 | 1 / 0 | -1.8 | 5 | -7.0 | -0.13 | -7.6 |
| 16 | DEN | 28 | +0.537 | +0.498 | +0.040 | +15.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.21 | +8.8 |
| 17 | LAC | 22 | -0.518 | -0.526 | +0.008 | -11.4 | 0 / 1 | -5.2 | 3 | -9.3 | -0.18 | -3.5 |
| 18 | SEA | 31 | -0.419 | -0.370 | -0.048 | -13.0 | 1 / 0 | -1.8 | 5 | -8.5 | -0.02 | -10.3 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.