Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Baker Mayfield — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.091
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.094
Dropbacks
695
Turnover EPA
-60.4
WPA
+1.26
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 35 | +0.010 | +0.026 | -0.016 | +0.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.16 | -3.0 |
| 2 | CHI | 34 | +0.343 | +0.390 | -0.047 | +11.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.54 | +15.6 |
| 3 | PHI | 28 | +0.059 | +0.058 | +0.002 | +1.7 | 1 / 0 | -3.1 | 2 | -2.0 | -0.24 | -2.5 |
| 4 | NO | 34 | +0.294 | +0.232 | +0.061 | +10.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.1 | 1 | -2.1 | +0.25 | +15.1 |
| 6 | DET | 38 | -0.285 | -0.218 | -0.066 | -10.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.2 | 1 | -0.9 | -0.21 | -10.5 |
| 7 | ATL | 45 | -0.024 | +0.013 | -0.037 | -1.1 | 1 / 0 | -3.7 | 3 | -4.1 | -0.34 | -1.9 |
| 8 | BUF | 45 | +0.010 | -0.024 | +0.034 | +0.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.3 | -0.16 | -2.6 |
| 9 | HOU | 32 | +0.353 | +0.331 | +0.023 | +11.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -0.3 | +0.50 | +2.7 |
| 10 | TEN | 32 | +0.211 | +0.246 | -0.035 | +6.7 | 1 / 0 | -1.7 | 3 | -4.3 | +0.23 | +2.6 |
| 11 | SF | 49 | -0.122 | -0.188 | +0.066 | -6.0 | 1 / 1 | -9.9 | 4 | -10.0 | -0.16 | +2.4 |
| 12 | IND | 36 | -0.225 | -0.209 | -0.016 | -8.1 | 1 / 1 | -9.9 | 6 | -11.2 | -0.15 | -0.0 |
| 13 | CAR | 30 | -0.129 | -0.123 | -0.006 | -3.9 | 1 / 0 | -2.2 | 1 | -2.1 | -0.06 | -11.7 |
| 14 | ATL | 30 | +0.044 | +0.082 | -0.038 | +1.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.29 | -17.8 |
| 15 | GB | 33 | +0.718 | +0.711 | +0.007 | +23.7 | 0 / 1 | -5.7 | 5 | -10.4 | +0.59 | +14.2 |
| 16 | JAX | 37 | +0.351 | +0.350 | +0.001 | +13.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.8 | +0.18 | +7.2 |
| 17 | NO | 36 | +0.227 | +0.168 | +0.059 | +8.2 | 2 / 0 | -7.5 | 2 | -3.2 | -0.10 | -0.9 |
| 18 | CAR | 35 | -0.235 | -0.228 | -0.007 | -8.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.8 | -0.33 | -3.7 |
| 19 | PHI | 40 | +0.297 | +0.288 | +0.009 | +11.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -8.9 | +0.08 | -4.2 |
| 20 | DET | 46 | +0.025 | +0.084 | -0.059 | +1.2 | 2 / 0 | -7.4 | 4 | -8.1 | +0.19 | -2.8 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.