Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Baker Mayfield — 2026 Every split →
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.160
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.205
Dropbacks
120
Turnover EPA
-20.1
WPA
-1.23
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIN | 32 | -0.226 | -0.169 | -0.057 | -7.2 | 0 / 2 | -11.8 | 4 | -15.4 | -0.38 | +14.0 |
| 2 | CLE | 37 | -0.308 | -0.367 | +0.058 | -11.4 | 1 / 0 | -6.2 | 3 | -3.0 | -0.51 | +4.2 |
| 3 | MIN | 40 | -0.139 | -0.272 | +0.133 | -5.6 | 1 / 0 | -2.1 | 6 | -8.4 | -0.44 | -14.8 |
| 7 | CAR | 11 | +0.452 | +0.481 | -0.029 | +5.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.10 | +1.6 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.