Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Josh Allen — 2021
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.162
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.164
Dropbacks
740
Turnover EPA
-68.0
WPA
+1.74
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PIT | 54 | -0.062 | -0.113 | +0.051 | -3.3 | 0 / 1 | -3.7 | 3 | -6.7 | -0.31 | -3.4 |
| 2 | MIA | 34 | +0.176 | +0.113 | +0.064 | +6.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 1 | -2.3 | -0.06 | -2.5 |
| 3 | WAS | 44 | +0.397 | +0.394 | +0.003 | +17.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.35 | +13.9 |
| 4 | HOU | 31 | -0.032 | +0.063 | -0.095 | -1.0 | 1 / 0 | -7.0 | 1 | -1.0 | -0.16 | +5.0 |
| 5 | KC | 26 | +0.542 | +0.555 | -0.013 | +14.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.38 | +3.5 |
| 6 | TEN | 50 | +0.267 | +0.279 | -0.012 | +13.3 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 3 | -1.7 | +0.59 | +13.9 |
| 8 | MIA | 42 | +0.196 | +0.133 | +0.063 | +8.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.06 | +1.8 |
| 9 | JAX | 51 | -0.310 | -0.171 | -0.139 | -15.8 | 2 / 0 | -9.3 | 4 | -5.2 | -0.30 | -0.4 |
| 10 | NYJ | 30 | +0.532 | +0.632 | -0.100 | +16.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 2 | -3.8 | +0.26 | +16.8 |
| 11 | IND | 36 | -0.029 | -0.035 | +0.007 | -1.0 | 2 / 0 | -7.7 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.01 | -3.4 |
| 12 | NO | 30 | +0.493 | +0.381 | +0.113 | +14.8 | 2 / 0 | -7.7 | 2 | -3.2 | +0.06 | +15.6 |
| 13 | NE | 32 | -0.183 | -0.221 | +0.038 | -5.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.0 | -0.52 | -8.7 |
| 14 | TB | 57 | +0.004 | -0.060 | +0.064 | +0.2 | 1 / 0 | -2.8 | 3 | -4.1 | -0.10 | +3.3 |
| 15 | CAR | 38 | +0.187 | +0.181 | +0.005 | +7.1 | 1 / 0 | -3.5 | 4 | -2.6 | +0.08 | -3.6 |
| 16 | NE | 48 | +0.480 | +0.430 | +0.050 | +23.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.42 | +4.7 |
| 17 | ATL | 27 | -0.330 | -0.252 | -0.078 | -8.9 | 3 / 0 | -12.2 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.13 | -14.0 |
| 18 | NYJ | 45 | -0.150 | -0.038 | -0.112 | -6.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.03 | -8.9 |
| 19 | NE | 25 | +0.981 | +0.919 | +0.062 | +24.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.13 | +18.0 |
| 20 | KC | 40 | +0.440 | +0.455 | -0.015 | +17.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.4 | +0.93 | +5.9 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.