Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Josh Allen — 2022
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.130
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.128
Dropbacks
689
Turnover EPA
-98.2
WPA
+1.61
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA | 33 | +0.434 | +0.414 | +0.020 | +14.3 | 2 / 0 | -9.6 | 2 | -1.9 | +0.35 | +11.3 |
| 2 | TEN | 39 | +0.425 | +0.416 | +0.009 | +16.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.39 | +3.8 |
| 3 | MIA | 66 | +0.110 | +0.096 | +0.014 | +7.3 | 0 / 1 | -4.4 | 4 | -10.3 | -0.11 | +4.3 |
| 4 | BAL | 37 | +0.021 | +0.056 | -0.034 | +0.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.5 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.02 | -11.1 |
| 5 | PIT | 31 | +0.790 | +0.802 | -0.012 | +24.5 | 1 / 0 | -5.2 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.31 | +4.7 |
| 6 | KC | 41 | +0.269 | +0.272 | -0.004 | +11.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.64 | +5.2 |
| 8 | GB | 27 | +0.047 | +0.023 | +0.024 | +1.3 | 2 / 0 | -7.4 | 2 | -1.1 | +0.08 | -9.5 |
| 9 | NYJ | 39 | -0.351 | -0.326 | -0.026 | -13.7 | 2 / 0 | -9.5 | 5 | -4.8 | -0.52 | -8.3 |
| 10 | MIN | 45 | +0.056 | +0.061 | -0.005 | +2.5 | 2 / 0 | -7.7 | 2 | -5.1 | -0.31 | +6.3 |
| 11 | CLE | 29 | +0.283 | +0.240 | +0.044 | +8.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.1 | +0.26 | +2.9 |
| 12 | DET | 45 | -0.114 | -0.016 | -0.097 | -5.1 | 1 / 0 | -5.6 | 3 | -3.7 | +0.34 | -4.2 |
| 13 | NE | 35 | +0.412 | +0.336 | +0.076 | +14.4 | 0 / 1 | -3.5 | 2 | -4.3 | +0.26 | +3.5 |
| 14 | NYJ | 30 | -0.181 | -0.159 | -0.022 | -5.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.9 | -0.10 | -8.2 |
| 15 | MIA | 42 | +0.316 | +0.300 | +0.016 | +13.3 | 0 / 1 | -5.4 | 2 | -6.6 | +0.31 | +6.4 |
| 16 | CHI | 28 | +0.042 | +0.093 | -0.051 | +1.2 | 2 / 0 | -9.6 | 1 | -0.9 | -0.31 | +1.0 |
| 18 | NE | 33 | +0.330 | +0.256 | +0.074 | +10.9 | 1 / 0 | -3.5 | 2 | -4.1 | +0.23 | +0.9 |
| 19 | MIA | 46 | -0.253 | -0.257 | +0.004 | -11.6 | 2 / 1 | -18.6 | 7 | -15.9 | -0.24 | +5.5 |
| 20 | CIN | 43 | -0.025 | -0.041 | +0.016 | -1.1 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 1 | -1.3 | -0.00 | +1.1 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.