Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Josh Allen — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.164
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.150
Dropbacks
675
Turnover EPA
-54.5
WPA
+2.65
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ | 45 | +0.055 | -0.031 | +0.086 | +2.5 | 3 / 0 | -6.9 | 5 | -5.7 | -0.08 | +7.8 |
| 2 | LV | 39 | +0.318 | +0.339 | -0.021 | +12.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.1 | +0.12 | +15.1 |
| 3 | WAS | 32 | +0.105 | +0.163 | -0.058 | +3.4 | 1 / 0 | -0.9 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.13 | -3.1 |
| 4 | MIA | 27 | +0.814 | +0.822 | -0.008 | +22.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.5 | +0.43 | +19.3 |
| 5 | JAX | 41 | +0.343 | +0.341 | +0.002 | +14.1 | 1 / 0 | +0.2 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.21 | +13.4 |
| 6 | NYG | 30 | +0.040 | +0.040 | +0.000 | +1.2 | 1 / 0 | -4.2 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.06 | -2.2 |
| 7 | NE | 42 | +0.245 | +0.204 | +0.040 | +10.3 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.18 | +6.7 |
| 8 | TB | 42 | +0.017 | +0.043 | -0.026 | +0.7 | 1 / 0 | -5.5 | 2 | -3.2 | +0.17 | +10.1 |
| 9 | CIN | 40 | +0.105 | +0.116 | -0.011 | +4.2 | 1 / 0 | -3.4 | 1 | -1.6 | -0.08 | +12.6 |
| 10 | DEN | 27 | -0.171 | -0.148 | -0.023 | -4.6 | 2 / 0 | -6.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.23 | -5.3 |
| 11 | NYJ | 33 | +0.457 | +0.364 | +0.094 | +15.1 | 1 / 0 | -0.1 | 1 | -2.6 | +0.08 | -3.4 |
| 12 | PHI | 52 | +0.156 | +0.147 | +0.009 | +8.1 | 1 / 0 | -5.0 | 1 | -1.1 | +0.62 | -4.2 |
| 14 | KC | 44 | +0.013 | -0.045 | +0.058 | +0.6 | 1 / 0 | -3.0 | 3 | -4.7 | -0.13 | -1.4 |
| 15 | DAL | 16 | +0.004 | -0.029 | +0.032 | +0.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.5 | -0.02 | -10.2 |
| 16 | LAC | 22 | +0.454 | +0.456 | -0.003 | +10.0 | 1 / 0 | -2.4 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.45 | +8.0 |
| 17 | NE | 31 | -0.128 | -0.160 | +0.032 | -4.0 | 1 / 0 | -2.3 | 1 | -2.4 | -0.02 | -6.9 |
| 18 | MIA | 41 | +0.074 | +0.096 | -0.022 | +3.1 | 2 / 1 | -11.1 | 3 | -7.5 | +0.33 | +18.2 |
| 19 | PIT | 32 | +0.112 | +0.115 | -0.003 | +3.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.6 | +0.10 | +0.5 |
| 20 | KC | 39 | +0.212 | +0.148 | +0.064 | +8.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.35 | -0.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.