Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Josh Allen — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.270
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.259
Dropbacks
586
Turnover EPA
-38.3
WPA
+3.06
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI | 25 | +0.303 | +0.366 | -0.063 | +7.6 | 0 / 1 | -6.0 | 2 | -6.5 | +0.34 | +9.9 |
| 2 | MIA | 19 | +0.606 | +0.587 | +0.019 | +11.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.24 | +4.2 |
| 3 | JAX | 30 | +0.698 | +0.747 | -0.050 | +20.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.31 | +12.8 |
| 4 | BAL | 32 | -0.152 | -0.237 | +0.085 | -4.8 | 0 / 1 | -4.8 | 3 | -9.0 | -0.11 | +1.4 |
| 5 | HOU | 31 | -0.128 | -0.166 | +0.038 | -4.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | -0.32 | -27.2 |
| 6 | NYJ | 27 | +0.445 | +0.402 | +0.043 | +12.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.4 | +0.32 | +18.9 |
| 7 | TEN | 34 | +0.362 | +0.378 | -0.016 | +12.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.22 | +2.8 |
| 8 | SEA | 35 | +0.346 | +0.357 | -0.011 | +12.1 | 1 / 0 | -6.5 | 1 | +1.3 | +0.24 | +7.4 |
| 9 | MIA | 40 | +0.239 | +0.227 | +0.012 | +9.6 | 1 / 0 | -4.7 | 1 | -0.9 | +0.25 | -2.3 |
| 10 | IND | 39 | -0.205 | -0.166 | -0.039 | -8.0 | 2 / 0 | -11.5 | 2 | -2.6 | -0.02 | -8.7 |
| 11 | KC | 40 | +0.169 | +0.149 | +0.020 | +6.8 | 1 / 0 | -4.4 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.20 | +4.2 |
| 13 | SF | 17 | +0.474 | +0.439 | +0.035 | +8.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.09 | +9.8 |
| 14 | LA | 37 | +0.460 | +0.455 | +0.005 | +17.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.25 | -5.6 |
| 15 | DET | 34 | +0.601 | +0.585 | +0.016 | +20.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.43 | +5.2 |
| 16 | NE | 30 | +0.019 | +0.051 | -0.032 | +0.6 | 1 / 0 | -0.3 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.14 | -4.1 |
| 17 | NYJ | 27 | +0.412 | +0.362 | +0.050 | +11.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.18 | -3.3 |
| 19 | DEN | 29 | +0.578 | +0.551 | +0.027 | +16.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.4 | +0.17 | +16.5 |
| 20 | BAL | 23 | +0.014 | -0.075 | +0.089 | +0.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.1 | +0.03 | +5.5 |
| 21 | KC | 37 | +0.217 | +0.197 | +0.020 | +8.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.1 | +0.10 | +5.2 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.