Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Josh Allen — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.162
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.148
Dropbacks
584
Turnover EPA
-52.6
WPA
+2.06
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 49 | +0.305 | +0.292 | +0.013 | +14.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.35 | +8.6 |
| 2 | NYJ | 26 | -0.194 | -0.086 | -0.107 | -5.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.4 | -0.13 | -9.4 |
| 3 | MIA | 30 | +0.318 | +0.355 | -0.037 | +9.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.3 | +0.36 | +7.7 |
| 4 | NO | 25 | +0.228 | +0.197 | +0.032 | +5.7 | 1 / 0 | -1.3 | 3 | -3.7 | +0.23 | +9.3 |
| 5 | NE | 32 | +0.372 | +0.333 | +0.039 | +11.9 | 1 / 0 | -3.7 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.01 | +5.9 |
| 6 | ATL | 30 | -0.243 | -0.239 | -0.004 | -7.3 | 2 / 0 | -5.5 | 4 | -5.0 | -0.10 | -7.9 |
| 8 | CAR | 21 | +0.290 | +0.366 | -0.077 | +6.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.8 | -0.01 | -7.2 |
| 9 | KC | 29 | +0.351 | +0.331 | +0.020 | +10.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.6 | +0.37 | +18.4 |
| 10 | MIA | 44 | +0.052 | +0.095 | -0.044 | +2.3 | 1 / 0 | -5.2 | 3 | -1.8 | -0.10 | +7.7 |
| 11 | TB | 31 | +0.368 | +0.401 | -0.034 | +11.4 | 2 / 0 | -7.3 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.45 | -0.8 |
| 12 | HOU | 42 | -0.065 | -0.173 | +0.108 | -2.7 | 2 / 0 | -7.4 | 8 | -12.5 | -0.64 | +0.8 |
| 13 | PIT | 23 | +0.240 | +0.235 | +0.005 | +5.5 | 1 / 0 | -3.6 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.10 | -8.5 |
| 14 | CIN | 32 | +0.474 | +0.522 | -0.048 | +15.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.5 | +0.55 | +12.5 |
| 15 | NE | 30 | +0.353 | +0.315 | +0.038 | +10.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.2 | +0.33 | +10.4 |
| 16 | CLE | 21 | -0.349 | -0.403 | +0.054 | -7.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.3 | -0.29 | -0.9 |
| 17 | PHI | 41 | -0.150 | -0.230 | +0.080 | -6.2 | 0 / 1 | -7.5 | 5 | -15.2 | -0.49 | -0.4 |
| 19 | JAX | 36 | +0.295 | +0.272 | +0.023 | +10.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.49 | +11.3 |
| 20 | DEN | 42 | +0.221 | +0.118 | +0.103 | +9.3 | 2 / 1 | -11.0 | 3 | -7.5 | +0.58 | +2.3 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.