Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Sam Darnold — 2022
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.141
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.148
Dropbacks
147
Turnover EPA
-16.9
WPA
-0.02
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | DEN | 19 | +0.309 | +0.275 | +0.034 | +5.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.00 | +5.0 |
| 14 | SEA | 26 | -0.143 | -0.103 | -0.040 | -3.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.1 | -0.04 | +3.1 |
| 15 | PIT | 26 | +0.372 | +0.391 | -0.018 | +9.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -2.7 | +0.20 | +12.2 |
| 16 | DET | 22 | +0.568 | +0.650 | -0.082 | +12.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.15 | +2.9 |
| 17 | TB | 37 | +0.223 | +0.208 | +0.015 | +8.3 | 1 / 1 | -8.8 | 2 | -6.7 | +0.16 | +12.2 |
| 18 | NO | 17 | -0.699 | -0.759 | +0.060 | -11.9 | 2 / 0 | -8.1 | 2 | -1.2 | -0.49 | -21.4 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.