Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Sam Darnold — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.024
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.031
Dropbacks
643
Turnover EPA
-84.9
WPA
+2.22
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG | 25 | +0.336 | +0.382 | -0.046 | +8.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.4 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.15 | +16.7 |
| 2 | SF | 28 | -0.007 | -0.031 | +0.024 | -0.2 | 1 / 0 | -6.2 | 3 | -3.8 | +0.02 | +0.7 |
| 3 | HOU | 32 | +0.205 | +0.164 | +0.041 | +6.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -4.0 | +0.11 | +1.0 |
| 4 | GB | 30 | +0.308 | +0.271 | +0.037 | +9.2 | 1 / 1 | -10.1 | 2 | -7.4 | +0.33 | +10.9 |
| 5 | NYJ | 35 | -0.314 | -0.344 | +0.029 | -11.0 | 1 / 0 | -1.6 | 4 | -6.7 | -0.27 | -9.0 |
| 7 | DET | 32 | -0.021 | -0.024 | +0.003 | -0.7 | 1 / 0 | -3.8 | 4 | -3.9 | -0.25 | +13.5 |
| 8 | LA | 28 | +0.301 | +0.302 | -0.002 | +8.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.5 | +0.36 | +11.8 |
| 9 | IND | 38 | -0.200 | -0.163 | -0.037 | -7.6 | 2 / 1 | -20.9 | 4 | -14.4 | -0.11 | +20.6 |
| 10 | JAX | 39 | -0.129 | -0.062 | -0.067 | -5.0 | 3 / 0 | -14.9 | 1 | -2.6 | -0.12 | +0.5 |
| 11 | TEN | 34 | +0.200 | +0.219 | -0.019 | +6.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.9 | +0.28 | +3.8 |
| 12 | CHI | 37 | +0.283 | +0.275 | +0.008 | +10.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.2 | +0.78 | +6.8 |
| 13 | ARI | 36 | -0.044 | +0.030 | -0.074 | -1.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -8.9 | +0.06 | +1.9 |
| 14 | ATL | 32 | +0.721 | +0.738 | -0.016 | +23.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.6 | +0.74 | +13.2 |
| 15 | CHI | 42 | +0.071 | +0.069 | +0.002 | +3.0 | 1 / 0 | -3.3 | 2 | -3.8 | +0.07 | -4.5 |
| 16 | SEA | 38 | +0.206 | +0.220 | -0.014 | +7.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.4 | +0.43 | -1.7 |
| 17 | GB | 44 | +0.313 | +0.277 | +0.036 | +13.8 | 1 / 0 | -6.2 | 1 | -0.9 | +0.45 | +8.5 |
| 18 | DET | 43 | -0.589 | -0.577 | -0.012 | -25.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.5 | -0.45 | -17.7 |
| 19 | LA | 50 | -0.620 | -0.598 | -0.022 | -31.0 | 1 / 1 | -13.5 | 9 | -25.2 | -0.38 | -5.0 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.