Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Sam Darnold — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.160
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.164
Dropbacks
599
Turnover EPA
-99.1
WPA
+1.66
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF | 23 | -0.340 | -0.293 | -0.047 | -7.8 | 0 / 1 | -4.6 | 1 | -4.6 | -0.59 | +7.3 |
| 2 | PIT | 35 | +0.082 | +0.082 | +0.001 | +2.9 | 2 / 0 | -10.8 | 2 | -3.0 | -0.12 | +7.0 |
| 3 | NO | 18 | +0.986 | +0.943 | +0.043 | +17.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.19 | +22.8 |
| 4 | ARI | 29 | +0.277 | +0.342 | -0.065 | +8.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.3 | +0.45 | +6.9 |
| 5 | TB | 34 | +0.664 | +0.689 | -0.025 | +22.6 | 1 / 0 | -3.8 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.78 | +16.3 |
| 6 | JAX | 28 | +0.402 | +0.376 | +0.026 | +11.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.4 | +0.21 | +7.4 |
| 7 | HOU | 33 | -0.065 | -0.170 | +0.106 | -2.1 | 1 / 1 | -10.0 | 2 | -7.5 | -0.05 | -2.3 |
| 9 | WAS | 24 | +0.874 | +0.935 | -0.061 | +21.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.36 | +23.5 |
| 10 | ARI | 13 | +0.249 | +0.315 | -0.066 | +3.2 | 1 / 1 | -9.5 | 1 | -5.1 | +0.20 | +18.9 |
| 11 | LA | 44 | -0.297 | -0.299 | +0.001 | -13.1 | 4 / 0 | -23.5 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.31 | +0.0 |
| 12 | TEN | 27 | +0.289 | +0.349 | -0.060 | +7.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.7 | +0.15 | +2.1 |
| 13 | MIN | 30 | -0.191 | -0.284 | +0.093 | -5.7 | 0 / 1 | -5.5 | 4 | -10.4 | -0.32 | -15.9 |
| 14 | ATL | 32 | +0.322 | +0.314 | +0.008 | +10.3 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 2 | -3.0 | +0.07 | -0.3 |
| 15 | IND | 35 | +0.107 | +0.132 | -0.025 | +3.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.36 | +0.6 |
| 16 | LA | 39 | -0.063 | -0.069 | +0.006 | -2.5 | 2 / 0 | -12.2 | 4 | -3.2 | -0.10 | +1.3 |
| 17 | CAR | 30 | -0.345 | -0.254 | -0.091 | -10.4 | 1 / 1 | -10.8 | 3 | -9.1 | -0.27 | +0.7 |
| 18 | SF | 28 | +0.135 | +0.171 | -0.036 | +3.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.8 | -0.03 | +6.9 |
| 20 | SF | 19 | +0.243 | +0.277 | -0.034 | +4.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.0 | +0.09 | +11.5 |
| 21 | LA | 39 | +0.481 | +0.462 | +0.019 | +18.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.4 | +0.58 | +8.7 |
| 22 | NE | 39 | +0.043 | +0.011 | +0.032 | +1.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.00 | -8.3 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.