Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Jake Browning — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.238
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.286
Dropbacks
134
Turnover EPA
-39.0
WPA
-0.68
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | JAX | 33 | -0.045 | -0.061 | +0.016 | -1.5 | 3 / 0 | -12.1 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.05 | +3.6 |
| 3 | MIN | 30 | -0.518 | -0.602 | +0.084 | -15.5 | 2 / 0 | -15.2 | 3 | -6.2 | -0.36 | +0.4 |
| 4 | DEN | 28 | -0.278 | -0.370 | +0.092 | -7.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.6 | -0.10 | -4.9 |
| 5 | DET | 42 | -0.188 | -0.209 | +0.021 | -7.9 | 3 / 0 | -11.8 | 2 | -3.4 | -0.30 | +0.0 |
| 12 | NE | 1 | +0.850 | +0.827 | +0.024 | +0.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.03 | +31.0 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.